NASCAR at Texas: Odds, fantasy advice, prediction, sleepers, drivers to watch for AAA Texas 500

Kevin Harvick
Kevin Harvick (Getty Images)

It’s the NASCAR playoffs and it’s an intermediate race so the discussion on who wins at Texas Motor Speedway Sunday has to start with the Big 3.

Kevin Harvick (11/4), Kyle Busch (7/2) and Martin Truex Jr. (5/1) have the best odds to win the AAA Texas 500 and rightfully so.

The three drivers have dominated intermediate tracks of late and have combined to win at Texas four times while earning 25 top-5 finishes and 46 top-10 finishes in 82 career races.

No one can start a conversation about who wins at the 1.44-mile track without first bringing these men up. Busch won the spring race, Harvick won in the fall of 2017 and finished second there earlier this year. Truex finished second there last fall while getting into a wreck in the spring.

These men will likely be out in front Sunday and our pick is for Harvick to come out on top. He hasn’t been quite as good of late as he was to start the season, but he is due for a win and Texas is a good place for him to do it.

The AAA Texas 500 is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET Sunday and can be watched on NBCSN.

What are the betting odds for Texas?

Kevin Harvick 11/4
Kyle Busch 7/2
Martin Truex Jr. 5/1
Kyle Larson 6/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Joey Logano 12/1
Chase Elliott 12/1
Ryan Blaney 12/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Kurt Busch 18/1
Aric Almirola 25/1
Erik Jones 40/1
Denny Hamlin 40/1
Jimmie Johnson 60/1
Alex Bowman 60/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Daniel Suarez 100/1
Paul Menard 300/1
Ryan Newman 300/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300/1
Jamie McMurray 300/1
William Byron 500/1
Trevor Bayne 1000/1
Chris Buescher 1000/1
AJ Allmendinger 1000/1
Darrell “Bubba” Wallace Jr. 2000/1
Regan Smith 2000/1
Michael McDowell 2000/1
Ty Dillon 2000/1
Field (all others) 1000/1

Which NASCAR drivers are best for your fantasy lineup at Texas?

Jamie McMurray finished third in Texas in April and has five top 10s in his last eight trips to Fort Worth. He finishes in the top 10 about a third of the time at Texas Motor Speedway. He has had his struggles of late but Texas may be the race to get him back on track.

Kurt Busch has one career win in Texas, but the winning isn’t the impressive thing about his time there. What’s impressive has been his consistency. Busch has finished in the top 10 in 58 percent of his races at the intermediate track. He finished seventh there in April. He led 40 laps as well.

Erik Jones hasn’t raced in Texas much but when he’s been there he’s had success with three top 12s in four career races. He has finished 10th and fourth in his last two trips there. He’s also been very good at intermediate tracks this season, finishing in the top 10 six times.

Chase Elliott has an uphill battle in the Round of 8, but he’s in a good spot this week at a track where he has had success. Elliott has finished in the top 10 in four of five career races at the track and he has never finished lower than 11th.