Week one of the NFL season is finally upon us which means daily fantasy is back! If you a playing daily fantasy, especially GPPs, you need to start stacking your lineups since it is an important aspect of a winning strategy. I became a huge fan of the concept years ago and won a lot of money because of it. I’m here to impart some of my knowledge to you so that you too can be successful. Here are a few other factors I take into account before finalizing my lineups:
- Look for high totals (and team totals) when analyzing game spreads.
- Find favorable game scripts and exploit matchups in those particular games.
So, without further ado, here are some great stacks for week 1 that fit this criteria:
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6.5), 50.5 over/ under
Tom Brady ($7,200 DraftKings; $8,600 FanDuel) & Chris Hogan ($6,100 DK; $6,700 FD)
The Patriots open the season as big home favorites, and this game opens with the highest total of the week of 50.5, and an implied total of 28.5 points for the Pats (also the second-highest). When you know the game is going to be a shootout, it is time to stack! The Texans have a nice defense, but Brady carved them up last season in week 3, in a 36-33 home win. Tommy detonated for 378 yards and five touchdowns. The Pats receiving core is lacking outside of Hogan and Gronk, so look for Brady to rely heavily on them. Hogan went for 4 catches, 68 yards, and 2 TDs last year against the Texans, and was a top-10 fantasy WR even with Brandin Cooks around. With Cooks gone, Hogan is under-priced, especially for the amount of targets he is going to get.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5), 49.5 over/ under
Drew Brees ($6,800 DK; $8,400 FD) & Alvin Kamara ($8,500 DK; $8,700 FD)
The Saints are at home, favored by a lot, and have the highest implied total of 29.5, and the second highest total of the weekend (49.5). I don’t have much to say about Brees other than he is in the perfect spot of a large home favorite vs. a pass defense that gave up the second most yards per game last season. He has a proven track record in these situations, so he is worth the investment. Also, if there is one guy you need to add to all your rosters (DK or FD), make sure it is Kamara. While he is pricey, his floor is as high as a giraffe’s head, and his ceiling is somewhere up in the clouds. Mark Ingram is out, Mike Gillislee just got there, Kamara is going to EAT! Andre the Giant style. If you don’t want to overthink it, this is the perfect game script for both Brees and Kamara to put on a show.
Those two stacks are popular and expensive, but if you want sure things, they are tough to pass on. That being said, here is a less appealing stack to some, but a great opportunity to find low ownership and value in.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-3), 48 over/ under
Andy Dalton ($5,800 DK; $6,800 FD) & WR John Ross ($3,900 DK; $5,100 FD)
This game has one of the highest totals of the weekend (48), and the sharps are on the OVER. You know what that means? Fireworks! The Bengals also have an implied total of 22.5. The Colts pass defense was a disaster last year, and they were especially susceptible to the deep ball. 20 percent of the completions against the Colts last season gained 20 or more yards, the highest rate in the league. The overall defense also gave up the third most points in the NFL. Judging by the lack of improved talent on the defensive side of the ball, it looks like it is going to be more of the same this season.
Last season, Dalton went for 248 yards, 2 TDs and 0 picks vs. the Colts, and he should reach those numbers again, at a minimum, on Sunday. While AJ Green is lights out, I like the cheaper option in Ross this weekend. Ross showed us what he can do in the preseason, so look for Dalton to hit him a couple of bombs as he finds holes in that Swiss cheese defense. With the Bengals being small road dogs and the game having a high total, this script sets up nicely for Andy and Co..
One other stack to consider. (Full disclosure, I might pivot off of this due to price and Rivers vs. Chiefs past history.):
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3), 48 over, under
Phillip Rivers ($6,400 DK; $7,500 FD) & Keenan Allen ($7,500 DK; $8,000 FD)
While the Kansas City Chiefs offense is going to be fire this year, their defense is going to be, putting it nicely, ice. While they are trying to rebuild their defense through the draft, they are very green and it is going to take some time to get red hot. Couple that with the Chiefs being 20th against pass last season and without their star Cornerback Marcus Peters (traded to Rams), it’s safe to say the Chiefs are going to be in a lot of shootouts this year. That is exactly why you will want to target them on a weekly basis. The Chargers are in a great spot here, and we need to take advantage of it. They are at home, with a high game total, and against a weak Chiefs pass defense. With Tyrell Williams coming off of a foot injury, and Mike Williams still finding his way, Allen is the safest WR to pair with Rivers this weekend.