After going 4-0 with our Alliance of American Football picks in Week 2, we followed with a solid 3-1 in Week 3 so we’ll look to keep up that winning percentage as Week 4 comes along.
There was one big surprise last week and that’s when the then-winless Stallions upset the then-undefeated Hotshots. It was the biggest upset so far of the short AAF season, although it wasn’t an insane surprise as Salt Lake has been a solid team all year. Also, Arizona lost its starting quarterback to injury in the third quarter.
But before we dive too far into the matchups, let’s look at the plate of games we have this weekend. Betting odds are via BetOnline.
Alliance of American Football Week 4 TV schedule
|San Diego Fleet at Memphis Express||4 p.m., Saturday||B/R Live/ fuboTV|
|Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions||8 p.m., Saturday||NFL Net/ fuboTV|
|San Antonio Commanders at Birmingham Iron||4 p.m., Sunday||CBSSN/ fuboTV|
|Atlanta Legends at Arizona Hotshots||8 p.m., Sunday||NFL Net/ fuboTV|
AAF Power Rankings: How good are the Iron, really?
Fleet (2-1) at Express (0-3)
Despite Memphis’ 0-3 record, this should be an interesting game. The Express have improved over the last two games, especially on defense, and Mike Singletary finally made the decision to bench Christian Hackenberg. Starting in his place will be Zach Mettenberger, who showed some promise against a tough Apollos squad in Week 3.
Hackenberg had no touchdowns (and three interceptions) in his 62 pass attempts. Mettenberger had two in just 12 attempts. He may not be the best quarterback in the AAF, but Mettenberger should be a big improvement over Hackenberg.
But while the Express have improved, the Fleet actually converted their improvements into wins. After a poor Week 1, San Diego switched quarterbacks and started to lean more on their great running back duo of Ja’Quan Gardner and Terrell Watson. The Fleet’s defense has also been one of the best in the league.
Who to watch: Zac Stacy started the season as the main Express back, but Sherman Badie showed up in a big way last week after just joining the team. He ran eight times for 59 yards and caught a pass for another 16. He certainly looks like the real deal and is a player I’m excited to watch for another week.
Prediction: Fleet win 23-16
Apollos (3-0) at Stallions (1-2)
The Apollos are our top team, but they should get a good challenge from the Stallions this week. For starters, it’s a road game, and the Stallions were extremely close to being 2-1. If not for an injury to QB Josh Woodrum, the Stallions may even be 3-0 at this point.
Salt Lake played spoiler in Week 3, ending the Hotshots’ undefeated run. But can they do it again this week? It’ll be tough, but there’s a reason this game was flexed to the more desirable primetime slot. We expect this to be a close game, but the Apollos have just been too good for us to see another upset in the works.
Garrett Gilbert has looked like the league MVP so far and running back D’Ernest Johnson is third in the league in rushing. Orlando can get it done in so many different ways.
Who to watch: Karter Schult has a sack in every game this season, and leads the league with four overall on the season. He’s also second in the league with eight quarterback hits. If he can pressure Gilbert, he’ll give the Stallions a chance at winning.
Prediction: Apollos win 32-26
Commanders (1-2) at Iron (3-0)
After picking up a win in Week 1, the Commanders have fallen on hard times, losing two straight. In Week 3 they tried going with backup QB Marquise Williams late in the game to try and spark something on offense, and they kind of did. Williams completed all four of his passes and ran five times for 33 yards.
There’s been no official announcement on who will start this week, but we assume Logan Woodside will get another chance at starter. Despite some struggles, he’s’ still looked impressive as he’s currently second in the league in passing yards.
No matter who comes in under center, though, they’ll get a tough task against arguably the best defense in the league. The Iron are holding opponents to seven points per game this season and are doing enough on offense to win games. Turnovers will be key in this one, as Birmingham’s eight forced turnovers lead the league.
Who to watch: Commanders RB Trey Williams was activated for the first time last week, and played well. He ran seven times for 75 yards (10.7 YPC) and caught two passes for another 13. It’ll be interesting to see if he can keep up his high production against such a tough defense.
Prediction: Iron win 18-11
Legends (0-3) at Hotshots (2-1)
On paper, this should be an easy win for the Hotshots. Talent-wise, they’re one of the best teams in the league and they’re going up against a Legends team that has easily looked the worst of the eight franchises. But Arizona is dealing with several key injuries in linebacker Steven Johnson (hamstring), defensive back SaQuan Edwards (hamstring) and starting QB John Wolford (back).
The main injury to keep an eye on is Wolford as his backup, Trevor Knight, did not look good when he came in during Week 3’s game. Still, even if Knight starts it’s hard to see the Legends winning this one. It’s a road game, and they’ve just looked so bad in their three losses.
Who to watch: Hotshots running back Jhurell Pressley is fourth in the league in rushing yards, and he could improve on that in a good matchup this week. The Legends are allowing an average of 133 rushing yards per game as well as six rushing touchdowns. Pressley could even get increased work if Wolford is unable to play.
Prediction: Hotshots win 30-12