Baker Mayfield, for those who consider the present rumors (grains of salt closely taken) might nonetheless be the #1 decide in the draft. Regardless, he’s going to be a prime decide together with a number of others, as Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson are all potential first spherical picks.
Mayfield has query marks about measurement and his angle, but in addition the highest manufacturing in school. There’s no disputing that final yr, he was primary, and when you draft on manufacturing, he strikes forward of a number of others.
However Darnold, Rosen, and Jackson are the similar age now as Mayfield was after his first season beginning in Oklahoma. That was an excellent season for Mayfield, however he has hit even higher heights in the final two, at ages when the others will probably be in the NFL. That, then, is an element that groups have to guage when evaluating prospects, making an attempt to place what they see in the context of age. Do they do an excellent job of it?
Going via the final 30 years of the NFL Draft (nicely, 1988 to 2016, since Mahomes, Trubisky, and Watson have performed much less than 20 video games mixed), listed here are the proportion of first-spherical quarterbacks who reached a minimum of one Professional Bowl, based mostly on age (in comparison with the date of September 1st of rookie yr).
24.1 or older: 1 of 5 (25.zero%)
23.1 or 24.zero: 6 of 21 (28.6%)
22.1 to 23.zero: 12 of 27 (forty four.four%)
22.zero or youthful: 7 of thirteen (fifty three.eight%)
Let’s all have a fast chuckle that the Browns as soon as took a man about to show 29 in the first spherical. Are we carried out but? Okay, shifting on …
Mayfield turned 23 this month, and whereas not previous, he’s in the higher third of age amongst first rounders. In the meantime, everybody else on this draft is in the youthful half, with Josh Allen turning 22 subsequent month, and the different three all amongst the 15 youngest potential first-rounders in the final 30 years. Sam Darnold is nonetheless 20, and will probably be the third-youngest first rounder over that span, older than solely Michael Vick and Tommy Maddox.
That youthful group additionally has Mariota–who might nonetheless make a Professional Bowl throughout his profession, and Mahomes and Watson would additionally qualify.
Age isn’t going to make a man an outright bust and never capable of play, nevertheless it is going to have an effect on upside if not accounted correctly. Youthful guys are more likely to be higher if they will equally carry out. Groups have to guage if Mayfield’s efficiency is so superior that it makes up for a two yr head begin on Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen.