Saturday 25th May 2019

Fantasy Football: Players Where the Joes and the Fantasy Pros Disagree the Most

Fantasy Football: Players Where the Joes and the Fantasy Pros Disagree the Most

Using the average draft position and ranking data available at Fantasy Pros, here are the players where there is the most disagreement between the Joes (the drafting public at large) and the expert rankings in Fantasy Football. I’ve organized them into some categories. (All rankings from PPR scoring systems).

Joes Love The Second Tier Rookie Running Backs

Ronald Jones (82 ADP, 117 EXPERT)
Rashaad Penny (75 ADP, 96 EXPERT)
Sony Michel (79 ADP, 94 EXPERT)
Nick Chubb (116 ADP, 145 EXPERT)

Saquon Barkley is a likely stud, taking very highly in the real draft and expected to get an immediate workload. Some other rookies were drafted in the first two rounds, but don’t seem to have a clear path to success (and in many cases are behind others in preseason action).

Nevertheless, the Joes are drafting them early enough that they should be considered starters, while the experts are waiting and treating them more like high end backups. The success of Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt last year has optimism sky high for rookies, but those represent two of the best four seasons by a RB drafted between pick 21 and 100 in the last decade. Only 25% scored 160 PPR points and the median was 95 PPR points scored.

We’ve already seen Nick Chubb clearly behind Carlos Hyde in preseason reps with the first team, Rashaad Penny with an injured finger and behind Chris Carson, and Ronald Jones behind Peyton Barber. Sony Michel, meanwhile, has been held out of preseason games as well.

Joes Want to Grab That 2nd Running Back Earlier

Joe Mixon (23 ADP, 31 EXPERT)
Jordan Howard (24 ADP, 33 EXPERT)
LeSean McCoy (25 ADP, 38 EXPERT)
Derrick Henry (40 ADP, 59 EXPERT)
Royce Freeman (44 ADP, 55 EXPERT)
Marshawn Lynch (61 ADP, 73 EXPERT)
Carlos Hyde (65 ADP, 89 EXPERT)

One of my biggest things in drafts–especially PPR formats, is that I don’t want to reach too soon for a question mark at running back just because I had to have one. After the first twelve running backs are off the board, the average Joes are taking the next group of running backs nearly a round, or in some cases two rounds earlier than the pros rankings.

The Pros are on Veteran 2nd WRs Instead

Doug Baldwin (33 ADP, 24 EXPERT)
Larry Fitzgerald (34 ADP, 26 EXPERT)

The Pros flipped the script and take WR more frequently in the early 3rd round, most of those are slight differences where the receivers are going 4-5 slots earlier in the Pros recommendations, with Doug Baldwin and Larry Fitzgerald showing the biggest difference.

The Pros are higher on some WR3 types in favorable circumstances

Jamison Crowder (88 ADP, 64 EXPERT)
Cooper Kupp (91 ADP, 71 EXPERT)
Robby Anderson (97 ADP, 72 EXPERT)
Kenny Stills (115 ADP, 98 EXPERT)
Pierre Garcon (93 ADP, 77 EXPERT)

All of these players are falling outside the Top 25 at the position, but the Pros are higher on these guys in PPR formats. Jamison Crowder is the likely top receiver in Washington. Kupp was a rookie a year ago and is in the mix with Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks. Anderson had some off-field issues but was the top receiver for the Jets, and Sam Darnold is now the quarterback. Kenny Stills could see an expansion of targets without Jarvis Landry. Garcon was hurt before Jimmy Garoppolo got to San Francisco a year ago.

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