Thursday 20th June 2019

Khalil Mack Effect: How the Trade Affected the Raiders and Bears Odds

Khalil Mack Effect: How the Trade Affected the Raiders and Bears Odds

The Chicago Bears shocked the NFL world Saturday by acquiring Khalil Mack from the Oakland Raiders via a blockbuster trade.

Full disclosure, I am a Bears fan, so I have been dancing ever since we acquired the best pass rusher in the game. As Bruno Mars said, “Don’t believe me, just watch”:

Mack’s former teammates on the other hand, have been on the opposite spectrum, upset and in shock that one their franchise players is gone:

Now that the dust has settled on the trade, let’s take a look at the how the trade affects both teams from a gambling perspective…the “Khalil Mack effect”.

Pat Morrow, Head Oddsmaker at Bovada:

The Bears move from 6.5 to 7 wins. Raiders go from 8 to 7.5.

Jeff Sherman, Westgate Las Vegas:

Raiders from 20/1 to 40/1 and Bears from 100/1 to 40/1 for Super Bowl

Season wins (total) Raiders from 8 Under -140 to 7.5 -110. Bears go from 6.5 over -160 to 7.5 Under -130.

The trade had a significant ripple effect for both teams, but especially the Bears, whose odds have jumped significantly, most notably their Super Bowl odds. Here are the overall consensus moves from various books (Vegas and offshore):

Chicago Bears:

Season win total: 6.5 to 7.5
Super Bowl odds: 100/1 to 40/1
Conference odds: 50/1 to 25/1
Division odds: 12/1 to 8/1
Week 1 at GB: +8 to +7.5

Raiders were naturally on the flip side:

Season win total: 8.0 to 7.5
Super Bowl odds: 20/1 to 40/1
Conference odds: 10/1 to 20/1
Division odds: 7/2 to 4/1
Week 1 vs. LAR: +3.5 to +4.5

Bovada has also set Mack’s sack total prop at 11, which is in line with what he has done the last two seasons.

Teams that can protect the quarterback and attack him all the same, are the most successful year in and year out. With the tandem of Leonard Floyd and Mack, the Bears should now be able to get after the QB, in a division filled with great ones. Starting Sunday night, we will see if this trade helps the Bears win more games and Bears backers win more bets. FWIW, I will be on the Bears +7.5.

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