Saturday 20th April 2019

The Wonderlic Does Not Matter In Predicting QB Performance in the NFL

The Wonderlic Does Not Matter In Predicting QB Performance in the NFL

This week was “let’s leak the QB Wonderlic scores” time in the NFL. So it’s now that I need to remind you that it doesn’t matter in predicting who can be a bust and who won’t. In reality, you can also make a reasonably good argument that figuring out the Wonderlic and reacting to it might result in worse selections at the place.

However to greatest show, let’s go to the precise outcomes. I took all the compiled reported scores right here for quarterbacks and pulled the backside group of QBs listed and prime group in phrases of Wonderlic rating going again to 1978. However, I then restricted it to 1st and 2nd spherical picks to account for different scouting elements and take a look at guys who have been perceived at the time as beginning prospects.

Right here have been the guys in the backside 25 that I might discover, all with Wonderlic scores of twenty-two or decrease:

I listed the first four yr stats for the guys drafted in 2014 or earlier. ANYA+ is an adjusted rating the place one hundred is common and a better rating is best.

Listed here are the prime 24 reported scorers, with scores of 32 or greater, amongst first and second spherical picks.

The High Scorers have been drafted on common at a greater place (common of decide 14 versus decide 20). 60% of the High Scorers went in the Prime 10. forty four% of the Low Scorers did. So we might anticipate that perhaps the High Scorers would have barely higher numbers based mostly on that.

However it’s the reverse. The low scorers began extra video games (forty.9 to 32.5) in the first four years and had higher passing stats (ANYA+ of ninety six versus 87). The low scorers performed in extra video games, with a profitable proportion of fifty.1%, whereas the excessive scorers have been at forty six.four%. In wanting over these two lists, the bust price was twice as excessive with the second listing.

I’m engaged on a bigger piece on scouting and public feedback on quarterback prospects pre-draft. One factor I’ve observed is that when a quarterback is described as “sensible” that tends to be a nasty indicator. It’s not that intelligence is a nasty trait to have for a quarterback, in reality, it’s an excellent one. However standardized testing intelligence is probably not equal to sports intelligence and processing, and second, if that’s the trait that somebody is selecting to spotlight, it might be like damning somebody by praising them for his or her “character.”

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